000 AXNT20 KNHC 301033 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N24W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N E OF 5W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT AT 30/0900 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND NAPLES THEN ALONG 24N86W 21N92W S TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 18N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH OVER MISSOURI. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS OVER MEXICO AND COUPLED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF WATERS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER MEXICO MOVING OVER THE W GULF FROM TUXPAN MEXICO TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS W OF 96W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E TONIGHT AND MON SETTING UP AN E TO W RIDGE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NE TEXAS COAST ON TUE. MODERATE E TO SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW GULF TODAY AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE NE CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM PUERTO RICO TO CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO OVER THESE ISLANDS. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SE GULF AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TODAY AND DISSIPATE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA ON MON. HISPANIOLA... THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE TODAY WHEN IT WILL SHIFT TO SW TUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY MON AND OVER HISPANIOLA ON TUE THEN DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE LATE TODAY AND REMAIN THROUGH EARLY WED BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE CLEARS THE SKIES AGAIN. ATLANTIC... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 30/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDES THIS FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N71W ALONG 27N75W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-24N W OF 76W TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N59W TO 19N62W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR E ATLC NEAR 32N15W TO 30N20W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 27N30W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 70W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL RACE E REACHING FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA THIS EVENING FROM BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY MON AND FROM 32N61W TO HISPANIOLA ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO ON WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW