000 AXNT20 KNHC 291759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT MAR 29 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHEAST-TO-EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KNOTS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET...ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...EXCEPT TO 10 FEET TO THE WEST OF 78W... IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N14W...THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 20W...TO 3S30W...AND TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 5S37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 40W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE U.S.A. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE TEXAS GULF COAST WATERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...AND THEN IT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 81W AND 86W COVERING FLORIDA AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 28N TO 33N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO PLATFORM SITES...KBQX...KVBS...AND KATP. .. STATIONS...EXCEPT FOR STATION KATP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REST OF THE SITES. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KINGSVILLE AND AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN GALVESTON AND AT THE ELLINGTON GENERAL AIRPORT NEAR HOUSTON...IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL LOUISIANA...IN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. PERRY FLORIDA IS REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM BROOKSVILLE TO SARASOTA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM BROOKSVILLE TO PARTS OF THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE COLD FRONT FROM 30N91W TO 26N97W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS...SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 87W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 28N61W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N63W...TO 20N63W...AND TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... SURROUNDS THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N51W 19N52W 15N52W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT HAS SHOWN UP WELL IN A LONG-TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS... FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY REACH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...IF IT REMAINS INTACT. A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N52W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1036 MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH 36N59W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 29N69W 27N76W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 8N82W IN PANAMA BEYOND 6N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA PROBABLY ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 68W...INCLUDING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSAGES. ...HISPANIOLA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 28N61W...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N63W...TO 20N63W...AND TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO...LA ROMANA...AND SANTIAGO. FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA AND IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL BE IN THE EASTERN EXTREME OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT NORTHWESTERLY WIND ACROSS HISPANIOLA FOR MOST OF THE TIME...WITH WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL BE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WILL BE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N56W 28N61W... TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N63W...TO 20N63W...AND TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N TO 29N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 9N TO 24N BETWEEN 40W AND 58W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY... SURROUNDS THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N51W 19N52W 15N52W. IT HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. IT HAS SHOWN UP WELL IN A LONG-TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS... FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A 1036 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N52W. ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1036 MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH 32N44W TO 27N38W 26N26W...THROUGH 21N16W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1036 MB HIGH CENTER THROUGH 36N59W...ACROSS BERMUDA...TO 29N69W 27N76W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO 20N84W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO SOUTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 14N87W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 76W. EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 74W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET BETWEEN 71W AND 76W...AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE WEST OF 76W...TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 71W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...EXCEPT 10 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 59W...ELSEWHERE WITHIN AREA THAT IS BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 31N61W TO 31N35W TO 15N35W TO 12N60W TO 26N75W TO 31N61W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT