000 AXNT20 KNHC 281804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI MAR 28 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...A CARIBBEAN SEA GALE WARNING... GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 13 FEET FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 74W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE WARNING... PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA 2 FOR THE SECTIONS THAT ARE TITLED...MADEIRA...AGADIR...AND TARFAYA. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THOSE AREAS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 4N17W AND 1N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N23W... CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...3S29W TO 1S32W...TO 2S33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 4W AND 7W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N TO THE EAST OF 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE PUSHING HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IS INLAND...PASSING THROUGH ARKANSAS...TEXAS...AND NEW MEXICO. SURFACE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W...IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI...AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THIS PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RELATED TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A SQUALL LINE DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 2 TO 3 MILES WITH FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT MOST OF THE ICAO STATIONS/OIL PLATFORMS. ICAO STATION KGUL IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG. ICAO STATIONS KEMK AND KSPR ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. THE ICAO STATIONS THAT ARE ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF 80W ARE REPORTING FAIR SKIES. ICAO STATIONS KATP AND KDLP ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST FROM PORT LAVACA NORTHWARD...INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER COVER MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA FROM PERRY WESTWARD. THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT 25 TO 30 KT TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH OF 26N...TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 87W AND 94W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 94W. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWER THAN 1 NM IN AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 89W. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY AND MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 21N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA... CUTTING ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 19N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. ABOUT THE ONLY APPARENT CLOUD-FREE AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 73W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 28/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.27 IN GUADELOUPE...0.15 IN SAN JUAN...AND 0.08 IN ST. THOMAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AT THIS MOMENT. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET...FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT FROM 20N83W TO 16N86W. EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 21N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 20N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA... CUTTING ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 19N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA AND IN PUNTA CANA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS-MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY-TO- EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THIS HAS TO DO WITH A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N50W AND 26N55W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 26N55W TO 24N60W AND 21N68W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 21N68W TO 20N70W...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF HISPANIOLA...CUTTING ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 19N81W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 27N50W 23N60W 20N70W 20N80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. A FAR-NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N12W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 25N15W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N9W IN MOROCCO TO 27N15W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND AFRICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 30W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N TO 24N BETWEEN 30W AND 57W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...THAT IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SURROUNDS THE AREA OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. AN EXACT CENTER OF THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N43W 20N44W 16N45W. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING FROM THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 14N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N39W TO 27N34W 17N31W AND 8N29W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N61W...THROUGH 32N70W...TO 32N80W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 25N58W...THEN STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N65W...AND SHEAR LINE TO 20N72W. WITHIN 300 NM NW OF FRONTS AND SHEAR LINE NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT IN NW TO N SWELL. ELSEWHERE BETWEEN A LINE FROM 31N42W TO 15N51W TO 14N61W AND ANOTHER LINE FROM 31N73W TO 22N77W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT PRIMARILY IN NW AND N SWELL... EXCEPT 13 TO 18 FT IN NW SWELL N OF 27N BETWEEN FRONT AND 56W. WITHIN 180 NM OF A LINE FROM 24N40W TO 14N57W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS TO 9 FT IN MIXED N SWELL. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT