000 AXNT20 KNHC 271046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT THUS SUPPORTING NE TO E GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST AFRICA. GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 10W-13W ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE LATEST METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 02N20W TO 01N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 03S-06N E OF 13W...FROM 07S-05S BETWEEN 11W-22W AND FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 14W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT. WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. FURTHERMORE...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 25N. AS THE RIDGE IN PLACE CONTINUES TO SLIDE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 15 KT OR LESS SAT MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM 30N55W SW TO 24N61W TO 20N66W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ACROSS NW HISPANIOLA INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N73W. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE FRONT IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEAKENING OF THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN AND IS FORECAST THROUGH SAT NIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT. ...HISPANIOLA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLAND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORT A VIGOROUS CYCLONE CENTERED OVER NE NOVA SCOTIA AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 43N49W SW TO 30N55W 24N61W TO 20N66W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA AND THEN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 53W-58W. THIS FRONT IS BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH OVER COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND A 1030 MB HIGH OVER VIRGINIA AND A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 14N. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR