000 AXNT20 KNHC 270603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU MAR 27 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO START LATER THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST AFRICA. GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 10W-13W ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE LATEST METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO 05N18W TO 01N25W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N26W TO 4S37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 03S-04N E OF 09W...FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 12W-26W AND FROM 08S-05S BETWEEN 13W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES NEAR EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT E OF 90W AND RETURN FLOW OF 20-25 KT W OF THAT LONGITUDE. WESTERLY FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF. FURTHERMORE...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W-94W AND FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 94W-96W. AS THE RIDGE IN PLACE CONTINUES TO SLIDE E-NE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...SOUTHEASTERLY-SOUTHERLY WIND IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT WILL PREVAIL. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 15 KT OR LESS SAT MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. EXCEPT FOR HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM 30N56W SW TO 21N67W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ACROSS NW HAITI...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 18N82W 19N87W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE FRONT IS ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHICH IS SUPPORTING SHALLOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. WEAKENING OF THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE AND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...20 TO 25 KT WINDS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W LATER TONIGHT. ...HISPANIOLA... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE NW ISLAND TONIGHT HAS BEEN ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC SUPPORT A VIGOROUS CYCLONE CENTERED JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A TRIPLE POINT NEAR 41N52W SW TO 30N56W 24N62W TO 21N67W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N BETWEEN 54W-61W. THIS FRONT FINDS ITSELF BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS AND A BROAD RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE ATLC THROUGH SAT MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR