000 AXNT20 KNHC 261753 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EASTERN-MOST FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N64W TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W WITH GALE FORCE S TO SW WINDS N OF 29N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 61W. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO 28N70W TO 25N80W WITH GALE FORCE NW WINDS N OF 27N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 74W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SETUP ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SE CONUS AND LOWER PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH AMERICAN CONTINENT. GALE FORCE NE TO E WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO COMMENCE BY 27/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS INLAND NORTHWEST AFRICA THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE N TO NE WINDS ARE OCCURRING FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 10W-13W ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO. SEE LATEST METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 01N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 18W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... OVERALL VERY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS SUBTLE RIDGING IS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 28N94W. THIS ENERGY ALOFT IS GENERATING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AND COASTAL REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING N OF 21N W OF 90W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION LIES WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND EXPECTED TO SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS LOCATED GENERALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS...W OF 90W...THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...AND THEN SHIFT TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERED SOUTHERLY FLOW IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY SATURDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INFLUENCES THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERLY EXTENT OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD TO A BROAD BASE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND EXTENDS THE RESULTING SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO 21N78W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR 20N87W. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS WEAKENING CONTINUES TO TAKE PLACE AND THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME STATIONARY. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR ALONG WITH STRONGER NE WINDS NORTH OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING TRADE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH THE USUAL SLIGHTLY STRONGER...20 TO 25 KT WINDS EXPECTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W BY TONIGHT. SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY SKIES AND CONDITIONS REMAIN CLEAR AND DRY ACROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED TO THE NORTHWEST EXTENDING FROM 24N70W SW TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING TO THE SE OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE ADJACENT NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS N OF 20N AND THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO REMAIN N OF 20N THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VIGOROUS AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THAT SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHEASTERN-MOST FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N64W SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N74W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N78W AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. MOST OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND EAST OF THIS FRONT WITHIN 210 NM N OF 27N AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF 27N. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS CONNECTED TO THE OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N64W. THE FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 28N70W TO OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 25N80W. THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...HOWEVER A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 26/1500 UTC INDICATED STRONGER WINDS WITH AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS GENERALLY N OF 27N. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED EAST OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N21W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN