000 AXNT20 KNHC 252355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLC FOR W TO NW WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. THESE WINDS ARE THE RESULT OF A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE WELL N OF THE AREA BY LATE WED WITH GALE CONDITIONS ENDING BY THEN. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES TO 0N20W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AND CONTINUES TO 0N26W...THEN MEANDERS ALONG THE EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS NOTED FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 27W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FOCUSED ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IN THE FORM OF A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUED TO SLIDE SWD OVER THE GULF E OF 90W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTED A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA THROUGH 23N90W TO THE COATS OF MEXICO JUST N OF TAMPICO. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 23N85W. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS HAS MOVED TO THE SW COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF THE FRONT BEING ANCHORED BY TWO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. NW TO N WINDS OF 20-30 KT WERE INDICATED NW OF THE FRONT OVER THE GULF E OF 90W WITH WINDS TURNING MORE TO THE NE OVER THE GULF W OF 90W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WERE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT AND ALSO BANKED UP ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MADRE AND ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF S OF 25N W OF 94W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE EXITING THE GULF WATERS LATER TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WED WITH WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD FLAT UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND PROVIDES W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE BASIN. TRADE WINDS OF 15-20 KT PERSIST ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE S TO SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. HISPANIOLA... A REMNANT LOW LEVEL TROUGH N OF THE ISLAND LEFT A RESIDUAL MOIST AIRMASS THAT CURRENTLY SUPPORTS LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOUNTAIN RANGE. HOWEVER...DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT INHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ISLAND THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. ATLANTIC... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE SW N ATLC W OF 68W WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FOCUSED WITH A VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS. THE TROUGH SUPPORTED A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM A RAPIDLY DEEPENING 1000 MB LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 32N75W. THE COLD FRONT CROSSED THE E COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR STUART AND CONTINUED TO FORT MYERS. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE SAME LOW THROUGH 30N71W TO 27N66W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 25N73W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLUSTERS OF TSTMS FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 65W-71W. FARTHER EAST...A SHARP TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 41W N OF 30N SUPPORTED THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED INTO THE AREA TO NEAR 28N52W. THERE WAS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N21W. THE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW N ATLC NOTED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ COBB