000 AXNT20 KNHC 251801 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE SW N ATLC STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE GENERATED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N17W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N18W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N40W TO 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 7W-13W AND FROM 3S-4N W OF 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A BASE EXTENDING INTO THE NE GULF. THIS TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THEN INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N82W TO 23N88W TO 19N96W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N84W TO 22N88W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS WITHIN 70 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS. RAINSHOWERS ARE ALSO OBSERVED WITHIN 100 NM S OF THE COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. STRONG PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE REMAINDER GULF N OF THE FRONT BEING ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS BROAD RIDGE IS PROVIDING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE GULF NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15- 25 KT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE EXITING THE GULF WATERS TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND WED. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W AND PROVIDES NWELY FLOW ALOFT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES. TRADE WINDS OF 15- 20 KT PERSIST ACROSS ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT DOMINATES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY EARLY WED MORNING THROUGH WED NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGH THROUGH FRI. HISPANIOLA... THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT N OF THE ISLAND LEFT A REMNANT MOIST AIRMASS THAT CURRENTLY SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOUNTAIN RANGE. HOWEVER...DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT INHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ISLAND THUS INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS. ATLANTIC... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN CONUS AND PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC W OF 70W SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANCHORED BY A 1006 MB LOW OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N75W. FROM THE LOW A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW ALONG 29N70W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N71W TO 25N67W. A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W TO 24N84W TO 22N88W. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 68W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 30N W OF 67W. FARTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA OF DISCUSSION ALONG 30N50W TO 25N56W TO 22N61W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WED...WITH GALES DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR