000 AXNT20 KNHC 251035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.. A GALE WARNING IS FORECASTED FOR THE W ATLC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WED AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED AT 25/0600 UTC OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND THE TRAILING FRONT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N14W TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N22W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 29W-41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 7W-15W...FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W- 39W...AND WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 00N36W 2N41W TO 2N47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF EXTENDING FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO NEAR KEY WEST. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AT 25/0900 UTC FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO TAMPA BAY TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N87W CONTINUING ALONG 23N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E GULF FROM 24N-27N E OF 87W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 87W. BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 275/300 NM OF LINE FROM 27N87W TO 24N95W AND S OF 27N W OF 95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA N OF 23N TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 83W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE QUICKLY SE MERGING WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY ACROSS SE THIS AFTERNOON. THE MERGED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY AND WED AND SHIFT NE OF AREA THU. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W- 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL BUT S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 21N BY WED MORNING THEN GRADUALLY STALL AND WEAKEN FROM WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION WED NIGH THROUGH FRI. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. NW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THEN INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THU BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND WED AND THU. ATLANTIC... WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS W ATLC W OF 60W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 25/0900 UTC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N53W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N63W TO 26N68W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N72W TO A 1011 MB LOW THAT DEVELOPED AT 25/0600 UTC. AT 25/0900 UTC THE LOW HAS DEEPENED TO 1008 MB AND IS CENTERED NEAR 29N79W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27W W OF 76W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM S OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 70W-76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE FRONT W OF 68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA TODAY THROUGH WED...WITH GALES DEVELOPING ACROSS NE PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING AND FROM 32N61W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THU AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW