000 AXNT20 KNHC 250537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.. A GALE WARNING IS FORECASTED FOR THE W ATLC TUE MIDDAY TO WED MIDDAY N OF 28N BETWEEN 68W AND 71W ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N14W TO 1N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES NEAR 1N24W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-42W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 5W-8W...AND 3N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W- 21W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 00N38W 1N41W TO 2N47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO 24N87W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AT 25/0300 UTC FROM MELBOURNE TO TAMPA BAY ALONG 28N87W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 26N90W CONTINUING ALONG 23N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E GULF FROM 25N TO THE FRONT E OF 89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE N GULF N OF 25N. BROKEN/ OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE SE GULF FROM CUBA TO 25N BETWEEN 80W-84W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATE TONIGHT MOVING SE AND MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE GULF MAINLY ACROSS SE TUE. THE MERGED FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE AND WED AND SHIFT NE OF AREA THU. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE DEVELOPED ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W- 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG ACROSS S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED MORNING AND STALL ALONG 20N LATE WED THEN DISSIPATE THU. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THU INCREASING THE TRADE WINDS ACROSS ENTIRE REGION. HISPANIOLA... THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE DEVELOPED ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER THE S PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. NW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU. CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE ISLAND BEFORE THU BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND WED AND THU. ATLANTIC... WEAK UPPER RIDGE COVERS W ATLC W OF 65W. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 25/0300 UTC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N56W AND CONTINUES 27N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 26N70W TO 28N79W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MELBOURNE. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO THE FRONT W OF 76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 24N TO THE FRONT BETWEEN 71W- 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE W ATLC EARLY TUE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED MIDDAY TUE THROUGH MIDDAY WED. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N61W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW