000
AXNT20 KNHC 250016
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES..                                           
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLC TUE EVENING WITHIN 
240 NM SE QUADRANT OF A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 30N73W. PLEASE SEE 
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 1N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO S 
OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
1N-3N BETWEEN 15W-20W AND FROM 0N-2N BETWEEN 42W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 25N96W HAS 1013 
MB MSLP. A SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 1545 UTC SHOWED A COLD FRONT S 
OF THE LOW TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 21N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
EXTENDS EASTWARD OF THE LOW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND FEW 
TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A TROUGH 
IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS INDICATED BY WIND SHIFTS AND EXTENDS 
FROM NEAR MIAMI TO 25N85W. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE 
GULF TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS SE GULF TUE 
EVENING WITH THE MERGED FRONT MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN EARLY 
WED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE AND 
WED. 

CARIBBEAN...                                                    
A MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDERING 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE REGION. 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 5-15 KT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE 
TRADES OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN 
EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS REACH 20-25 KT. A 
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED THEN 
STALL ALONG 20N BY LATE WED. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                    
DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS IS SUPPRESSING DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION AND SUPPORTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN HIGHER TERRAIN. FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH TUE. AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND WED.

ATLANTIC...                                                     
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM 32N60W INTO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 26N75W TO SOUTH FLORIDA INCLUDING THE 
FLORIDA KEYS. ASSOCIATED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 24N W 
OF 68W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE COLD FRONT AND N OF 
13N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB 
HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT 
IN THE SW N ATLC EARLY TUE AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE 
ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH THU...WITH GALES EXPECTED TUE AND TUE 
NIGHT ACROSS N WATERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL