000 AXNT20 KNHC 241803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FOR THE W ATLC TUE EVENING WITHIN 240 NM SE QUADRANT OF A LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 30N73W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N16W TO 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N35W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-4N BETWEEN 10W-16W AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 16W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-5N WEST OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND CONTINUES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TO ST PETERSBURG AND THEN INTO THE EASTERN GULF TO 27N86W. FROM THAT COORDINATE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 26N94W TO TAMPICO MEXICO AND THEN ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF SIERRA MADRE MEXICO BEING SUPPORTED BY NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO 25N86W IN THE SE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT AND THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. IN TERMS OF WIND...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT IS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE RETURN FLOW OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN. THE COLD PORTION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS SE GULF TUE EVENING WITH THE MERGED FRONT MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR WHICH SUBSIDENCE HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND CURRENTLY SUPPORTS CLEAR SKIES. IN TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF 5-15 KT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE TRADES OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS REACH MAGNITUDES IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK S ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED MORNING AND STALL ALONG ABOUT 20N LATE WED. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR FROM THE UPPER TO THE LOWER LEVELS SUPPRESS THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION AND SUSTAIN CLEAR SKIES EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS NEAR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOUNTAIN RANGE. AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND ON WED. ATLANTIC... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC FROM 30N68W SW TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA AND THEN WESTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 26N72W TO SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO 25N86W IN THE SE GULF. ASSOCIATED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 24N W OF 68W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N52W SW TO 22N60W WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 140 NM W OF ITS AXIS N OF 26N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THIS TROUGH AND N OF 13N IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE AZORES. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER W ATLC EARLY TUE AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH THU...WITH GALES EXPECTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACROSS N WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR