000 AXNT20 KNHC 241037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES.. A GALE WARNING IS FORECASTED FOR THE W ATLC TUE EVENING N OF 30N W OF 76W IN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA TUE AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N18W TO 2N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N33W 1N41W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA E OF 2W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 10W-20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 25W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE GULF GIVING THE GULF WATERS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA AT 24/0900 UTC FROM DAYTONA BEACH TO BETWEEN TAMPA BAY AND CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N87W 26N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA FROM BOCA RATON TO NAPLES THEN INTO THE GULF TO 23N83W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE N OF FRONT E OF 88W AND N OF A LINE FROM 28N88W TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF N OF 25N E OF 90W AND N OF 21N W OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM TAMPA BAY TO CENTRAL MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING AND STALL THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS SE GULF TUE EVENING WITH THE MERGED FRONT MOVING INTO NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED. A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-80W AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA S OF 12N. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE E ATLC. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK S ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY WED MORNING AND STALL ALONG ABOUT 20N LATE WED. HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. NW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. CLEAR SKIES WITH AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUE BEFORE AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE ISLAND ON WED. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 70W. A WEAK COLD FRONT AT 24/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N70W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N78W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC NEAR 29N75W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR BOCA RATON. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N67W ALONG 28N68W TO 27N71W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W AND EXTENDS TO 31N50W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N55W TO 27N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 55W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONT/TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM W OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH TUE MORNING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER W ATLC EARLY TUE AND DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS THE W ATLC THROUGH THU...WITH GALES EXPECTED TUE AND TUE NIGHT ACROSS N WATERS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO S FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW