000 AXNT20 KNHC 232346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 01N24W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N24W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-07N BETWEEN 04W-11W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 37W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING AS BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 17N91W. WHILE FAIRLY ZONAL...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED OVER LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W AND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W W-SW TO 29N90W TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR 27N97W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF GENERALLY N OF 27N... INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS...LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER INFLUENCE OF WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHING WHICH IS RESULTING IN AN OVERALL LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME. A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOOKING AHEAD...A STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS THE GULF AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP QUICKLY N-NE ALONG THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH THE FRONT CLEARING THE GULF BASIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. STRONG N-NE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. THE OVERALL STABILITY AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. THE ONLY AREA OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE NICARAGUA... COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA COAST DUE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. FINALLY...THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT TO NOTE ACROSS THE BASIN IS STRONG TRADE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-78W. THESE TRADES RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING RESULTING IS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 63W WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF THE U.S. THIS EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 36N70W TO THE CAROLINA COAST NEAR 34N78W AND THEN SW ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS IS ACROSS THE REGION N OF 26N WITH THESE FEATURES... HOWEVER MUCH OF THE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 27N BETWEEN 64W-72W...AND N OF 32N W OF 72W. FARTHER EAST... ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N62W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N44W TO 30N52W THEN AS A SURFACE TROUGH TO 27N58W TO 27N62W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN TANDEM WITH THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS SUPPORT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 50W-62W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LARGELY FALLS WITHIN A WEAKNESS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NE BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N40W AND A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N25W. THE LATTER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THIS EVENING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN