000
AXNT20 KNHC 231732
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 6N11W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 5W-10W AND FROM THE 1N BETWEEN 
41W-47W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SE SURFACE FLOW 
IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 27N. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE 
SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO 
MOVE ENTER THE NW GULF LATER TODAY AND STRETCH FROM APALACHICOLA 
FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THIS EVENING THEN FROM TAMPA BAY TO 
NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W BY MON EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL. A 
REINFORCING FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MERGES WITH THE STALLED 
FRONT BY TUE WITH THE MERGED FRONT PASSING SE OF THE GULF TUE 
NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN...                                                     
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E 
OF 70W AND LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. 
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S 
OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. FRESH TO STRONG 
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE THROUGH TUE. 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE S THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TUE 
NIGHT/EARLY WED.

HISPANIOLA...                                                  
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND. WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR ALOFT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

ATLANTIC...                                                      
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N76W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS 
TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E 
OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS 
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 
32N41W TO 31N45W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO 25N39W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. 
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO W ATLC TONIGHT REACHING 
FROM BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON MORNING BEFORE 
STALLING FROM 32N60W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
DGS