000 AXNT20 KNHC 231034 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N15W TO 1N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 16W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM 1N- 3N BETWEEN 23W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE AT 23/0900 UTC IS RETREATING EASTWARD COVERING THE E GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 25N84W. THE SE SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE AND W GULF N OF 27N E OF 90W AND W OF LINE FROM 26N90W 22N94W TO 18N95W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SINK SE AND FURTHER WEAKEN TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ENTER THE NW GULF TODAY AND STRETCH FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THIS EVENING THEN FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W BY MON EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL. A REINFORCING FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MERGES WITH THE STALLED FRONT BY TUE WITH THE MERGED FRONT PASSING SE OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON THROUGH TUE AS THE W ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS E. A COLD FRONT WILL SINK S THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED. HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE CLEARED ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MONRING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS N OF THE ISLAND MON PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO 30N77W. THE SURFACE LOW HAS DISSIPATED. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N78W ALONG 29N78W ACROSS GRAND BAHAMA TO 25N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N46W AND EXTENDS TO 31N47W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N55W TO 24N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE THAT IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE SURFACE TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT 500 NM E OF BERMUDA AND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N29W. W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NE OUT OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO W ATLC TONIGHT REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON MORNING BEFORE STALLING FROM 32N60W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER W ATLC EARLY TUE DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE W ATLC TUE AND WED...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS N WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW