000 AXNT20 KNHC 230546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N16W TO 1N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 12W- 15W AND N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 2W-5W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 6W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. LARGER CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO DOMINATING THE GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF AT 23/0300 UTC FROM 26N85W TO 27N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N85W. THE SE SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER THE NW GULF COAST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAKE WAY FOR A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW GULF SUN AND STRETCH FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS SUN THEN FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N98W BY MON WHERE IT WILL STALL. A REINFORCING FRONT ENTERS THE GULF AND MERGES WITH THE STALLED FRONT BY TUE...WITH THE MERGED FRONT PASSING SE OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W AND LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W- 80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS THE W ATLC RIDGE SHIFTS E. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TUE NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NW TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PASS N OF THE ISLAND MON PROVIDING MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SEABREEZE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS MON AND TUE. ATLANTIC... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST. A 1015 MB LOW FORMED AT 23/0000 UTC AND AT 23/0300 UTC IS ALONG THE COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 30N79W THEN BACK ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN FORT LAUDERDALE AND THE UPPER FLORIDA KEYS TO 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 26N77W TO 31N79W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ABOUT 350 NM E-NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W AND EXTENDS TO 31N29W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N55W TO 22N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH N OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 23N-25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 32N29W. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC EARLY SUN. AND EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO 27N74W SUN NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO W ATLC EARLY MON AND MERGE WITH THE FIRST FRONT THEN STRETCHING FROM 32N60W TO 26N70W TO 29N81W MON NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER W ATLC EARLY TUE DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE W ATLC TUE AND WED...WITH GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS N WATERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW