000 AXNT20 KNHC 221744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO 03N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N13W TO 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 04W-16W...AND FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 25W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 40W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 17N91W. WHILE ZONAL...GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW EAST-WEST RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY STRETCHING FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. THIS AREA OF VORTICITY...AS OF 22/2100 UTC...SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH OR MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM 27N87W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 86W-94W... MOSTLY WITHIN 75 NM NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF GENERALLY S OF 28N IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF WEAK RIDGING ANCHORED ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE BY EARLY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST...AND IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY AND REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT DUE TO THE OVERALL LACK OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING DYNAMICS. A STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR OVER THE REGION. THE OVERALL STABILITY AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SMALL PORTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING NW HISPANIOLA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND JAMAICA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 21N70W TO 20N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21N72W TO 18N78W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FINALLY...THE OTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT IS STRONG TRADE WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-78W. THESE TRADES RANGE FROM 20 TO 25 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE NORTHWEST TIP OF THE ISLAND NEAR 20N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 19N W OF 72W INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO THE NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. OTHERWISE... NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL AND WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND TRENDING TOWARD BECOMING DIFFUSE...HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...WITH THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY BECOMING LESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING A FAIR AMOUNT OF PROGRESSIVE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST N OF 28N. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS ABOVE A FAIRLY BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED W-NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N67W. WITH RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AID FROM MARGINAL MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 29N BETWEEN 67W-78W...AND N OF 25N W OF 78W. FARTHER EAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD ALONG 55W TO A BASE NEAR 23N. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N55W TO 29N61W AND A PRE- FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N53W SW TO 26N57W TO 24N66W TO 20N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH BOUNDARIES. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 32N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN