000 AXNT20 KNHC 221035 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N18W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N26W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN PRIME MERIDIAN AND 18W AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 26W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO DOMINATING THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER COVERING MOST OF THE GULF. THE SOUTHERN SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA W OF MIAMI NEAR 25N81W THEN W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN ACROSS BASIN THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF AND STRETCH FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS SUN EVENING AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICO MON EVENING WHERE IT WILL STALL. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-77W INCLUDING THE TIP OF JAMAICA. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE MON. HISPANIOLA... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HAITI...THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND THEN CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 70W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N70W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N62W TO 24N67W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT AND ALL OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W. FRONT/TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY EARLY MON AND STALL FROM 32N63W TO NE FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG FRONT ACROSS SE CONUS COASTAL WATERS EARLY TUE THEN IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AND MOVE NE ACROSS W ATLC LATE TUE AND WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW