000 AXNT20 KNHC 220529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N17W TO 3N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N28W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 42W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO DOMINATING THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO TEXAS COVERING THE GULF. THE SOUTHERN SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF FROM 24N-29N W OF 86W TO JUST INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR SANTA CLARA CUBA INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N81W TO OVER FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI THEN W OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THROUGH SUN WHEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF AND STRETCH FROM APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS SUN NIGHT AND FROM TAMPA BAY TO NE MEXICO LATE MON. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SOUTH AMERICA TO ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIPS S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 13N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SUN THEN DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE MON. HISPANIOLA... A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PROVIDING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND OVER HAITI AND THE W PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER TODAY. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUN FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND THEN CLEARING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 73W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N76W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS ALONG 27N62W TO 24N67W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N29W. FRONT/TROUGH WILL DRIFT E AND DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW