000 AXNT20 KNHC 210604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 21 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING HAS JUST COMMENCED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA INTERACTS WITH LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. SEAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ARE FORECAST TO REACH A MAX OF ABOUT 12 FT TODAY. THE GALE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC AT THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU...WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM S AND 60 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH HAS JUST EXITED THE NE PART OF THE GULF. BROAD UPPER HIGH PRES HAS REPLACED THE TROUGH...AND COVERS THE THE ENTIRE GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAS USHERED IN DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT N OF 27N WHERE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING EASTWARD ARE DUE TO A JET STREAM BRANCH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC ENE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TO ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF WHERE MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS ARE IN THE 90-150 KT RANGE. THE PRESENT DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE CONTENT THROUGHOUT ALL ATMOSPHERIC LEVELS TO A MINIMUM. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF S OF 24N BETWEEN 87W-94W. A DISSIPATING SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG A POSITION FROM 24N89W TO 21N93W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW CLOUDINESS BANKED ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF WITH THE PARENT 1020 MB HIGH ANALYZED OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN ON SAT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS ON SUN. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND WESTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY AN ANTICYCLONE OVER SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLC SW TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA. PATCHES OF RESIDUAL SURFACE TO LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THIS FRONT IS ONLY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE LEE OF CUBA BETWEEN 77W-81W. SIMILAR MOISTURE PATCHES WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING WSW IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW BETWEEN HAITI AND THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH RATHER DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS NOTED. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ABOUT STATIONARY FOR THE TIME BEING. THE PRESENCE OF DRY AND STABLE AIR THROUGHOUT IS ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING NW TO EXIST OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ON SAT WHILE DAMPENING OUT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OVER THE MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. WITH AMPLE DRY AIR ALOFT AS SEEN IN THE VAPOR IMAGERY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN AT A MINIMUM THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT FORMS WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. ATLANTIC... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OBSERVED OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NEWD OVER TO ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. A WEAK MID/UPPER TROUGH IS SEEN EXTENDING FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR 31N27W SW TO 23N50W TO 20N57W TO 16N60W AND SW TO NE VENEZUELA. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 32N51W SW TO 28N57W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N65W AND SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 70W IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W. WEAKER HIGH PRES IS PRESENT W OF 70W WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 28N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON NWS RADAR TO BE OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND 80W. A WEAKER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC AND CLIP THE N PORTION OF THE AREA FRI MERGING WITH THE CURRENT FRONT WHICH WILL THEN DISSIPATE FROM 32N62W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ AGUIRRE