000 AXNT20 KNHC 202349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND EXTEND THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON FOR THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 9W- 16W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W- 27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE CONUS INTO THE NW ATLC TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF NEAR PANAMA CITY CONTINUING TO 28N89W. THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND SO NO SHOWERS. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER PANAMA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 24N86W 21N93W TO 18N94W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE W GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1023 MB HIGHS OVER NE TEXAS AND NW MISSISSIPPI. A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EXTENDING FROM 25N80W TO CUBA NEAR 23N81W. LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR W GULF FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W AND ARE BANKING ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THEN WEAKEN ON SAT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ANCHORED OVER E PANAMA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC TO OVER CUBA PROVIDING ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CUBA AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE S COAST. TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND IN THE MONA PASSAGE. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 14N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 76W- 80W AND FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 81W-85W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHEST WINDS OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR THROUGH FRI BEFORE A FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 67W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N51W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N58W TO 28N63W WHERE IT BECOME NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 27N67W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N74W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W. A WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC AND CLIP THE N PORTION OF THE AREA FRI MERGING WITH THE CURRENT FRONT WHICH WILL THEN DISSIPATE FROM 32N62W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BY SAT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW