000 AXNT20 KNHC 201757 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU MAR 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W WITH SEAS REACHING 10 TO 12 FT. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REGAIN GALE FORCE BY FRI MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA AND CROSSES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W CONTINUING TO 4N14W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 3N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N30W 1N40W TO 0N49W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 0N-6N BETWEEN 9W AND 22W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N W OF 42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS SW TO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO 27N94W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. THE DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL VANISH LATER TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS MAINTAINING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE E AND SW GULF WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE WESTERN GULF EXTENDING ALONG 26N93W TO 22N95W TO 18N95W. RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED WEST OF THE TROUGH INCLUDING THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS STARTING LATE NIGHT FRIDAY BETWEEN THE EXITING HIGH PRES AND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... HIGH PRES NORTH OF THE AREA IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF THESE WINDS IS RESULTING IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COASTS FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA TO COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE COVERS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHILE A TROUGH DEEPEN FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERING THE NE BASIN ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA ENHANCING SHOWERS THERE AND OVER ADJACENT WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT REACHING EASTERN CUBA FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE EXIT THE SE CONUS AND ENTER THE W ATLC WATERS. HISPANIOLA... UPPER RIDGING AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE CONTINUE IN PLACE AND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHER THAN A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...FAIR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TAIL END OF A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS N OF THE ISLAND LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY. ATLANTIC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N54W TO 27N62W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N71W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ALLOWING THE FRONT TO SLOW AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER...A REINFORCING PUSH WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO CONTINUE EASTWARD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY N OF 27N. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN WHICH ALONG LOW LEVEL DRY AIR PROVIDES OVERALL STABILITY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR