000 AXNT20 KNHC 192331 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU FOR THE S CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W THEN AGAIN FROM LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 7W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 19/2100 UTC ENTERED THE GULF EXTENDING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM GALVESTON TO CORPUS CHRISTI THEN THROUGH A WEAK 1015 MB LOW JUST W OF BROWNSVILLE CONTINUING OVER N MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR. HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 23N-28N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER S TEXAS/NE MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR COSTA RICA COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. THE WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 23N85W THEN DISSIPATES TO 22N89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO THE FRONT E OF 86W. BOTH FRONTS WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN ON SAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC ANCHORED OVER COSTA RICA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N E OF 78W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SPEED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND THE WEAKER FLOW OVER THE N CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 12N TO OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 77W-80W. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND OVER CUBA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE EXCEPT A GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH FRI BEFORE A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA N OF HISPANIOLA BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR SAT. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 65W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC DRAPES A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION AT 19/2100 UTC NEAR 32N58W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N68W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W WHERE IT BECOME NEAR STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N30W. N PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL FRI WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE W ATLC AND MERGE WITH THIS FRONT WHICH WILL DISSIPATE FROM 27N TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW