000 AXNT20 KNHC 191754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THURSDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LIBERIA AFRICA NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS ALONG 4N18W TO 0S30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 6S-4N W OF 23W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY THREE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF 40N EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS INTO THE GULF AND CONTINUE TO PROVIDE RETURN FLOW OF 5-10 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORMERLY OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS NOW BEING ANALYZED AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 23N80W TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTED NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SE GULF IT ADVECTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN BASIN...HOWEVER STRONG DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR AND SSMI TPW IMAGERY DEPICT DRY AIR ALOFT AS WELL AS THE LOWER LEVELS ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SW TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NW MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SW GULF...BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG OR SHOWERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN SUPPORTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE AND OVERALL STABILITY. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS CAUSING AREAS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N. AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD N OF THE AREA...THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF COLOMBIA THU MORNING WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... RIDGING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP RAINFALL LIMITED OVER HISPANIOLA THROUGH FRI...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS CLINGING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ...ATLANTIC... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 55W-70W CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM 30N61W SW TO 26N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THEN INTO COASTAL WATERS OF NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER ATLC WATERS E OF THE FRONT N OF 12N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR