000 AXNT20 KNHC 191102 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THU MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 09N12W TO 04N18W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES TO 03S41W ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF ITCZ AXIS WEST OF 25W. ...DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING SOUTH OF PENSACOLA NEAR 29N87W...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL EAST OF 90W IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH PRES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW DECKS OF CLOUDS COVER THE NE GULF NEAR THE HIGH PRES...WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYER CLOUDINESS IS NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BUT REGIONAL RADAR SITES DO NOT SHOW ANY SHOWERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FARTHER WEST...AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE N CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A 1004 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AREA OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE NE GULF AND THE LOW PRES OVER N CENTRAL MEXICO IS RESULTING IN A SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THIS MORNING...AS NOTED IN A 04 UTC ASCAT PASS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST. THIS FLOW IS DIMINISHING HOWEVER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH COAST TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING...THEN WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW WILL SET UP SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SW GULF...BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED...AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANCE FOR FOG OR SHOWERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NW AS NOTED BY RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. EARLIER CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SEEMS TO HAVE DIMINISHED OVERNIGHT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS CAUSING AREAS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN N OF EASTERN PANAMA. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...THIS TRADE WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE EXPECTED OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF COLOMBIA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. ...HISPANIOLA... ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP RAINFALL LIMITED OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS CLINGING TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ...ATLANTIC... A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT FROM 32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N. IN FACT...RECENT WEATHER OBSERVATIONS FROM BERMUDA SHOWED SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE WITH GUSTS TO 42 KT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AREAS OF MULTILEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NE AND WEAKENING...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY STALL THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY THE WEEKEND. FARTHER EAST...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N28W TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR 21N43W TO TRINIDAD. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW...BUT THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND THE LOW SEEMS TO BE FILLING. FAIRLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS NOTED IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE AZORES...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE ITCZ. MULTILEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 21N43W. OTHERWISE LITTLE SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN