000
AXNT20 KNHC 190600
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE CARIBBEAN 
WILL SUPPORT WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA LATE 
WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE 
SEE THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER HEADER MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
     
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF LIBERIA 
NEAR 07N11W TO 04N17W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 04N17W AND CONTINUES 
TO 02S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W AND 19W...AND 
BETWEEN 26W AND 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1018 MB IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF 
MEXICO THIS MORNING NEAR 28N86W...IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT 
THAT SWEPT ACROSS THE GULF YESTERDAY. FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL 
EAST OF 90W IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGH PRES. BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
AND DATA FROM A 0330 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH 
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WATERS WEST OF 90W. THE MOIST 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS SUPPORTING GENERALLY SCATTERED DECKS OF LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF 
WATERS. A FEW REMAINING HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED MOVING FROM 
CENTRAL MEXICO TO SW FLORIDA. OTHERWISE THE GULF REMAINS MOSTLY 
CLOUD FREE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 
SE TEXAS...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SE AND ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE THU...STALLING FROM THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BY THU 
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL 
DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH 
FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS 
STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE FRONT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER 
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
SOUTHWARD...WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WIND PATTERN IN A 0230 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS 
INDICATIVE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL 
CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. AREAS OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS 
PERSIST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM HONDURAS TO WESTERN 
CUBA. THE FRONT WILL START TO DISSIPATE THROUGH TODAY. THE ASCAT 
DATA ALSO SHOW STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA. SPEED CONVERGENCE OF THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS CAUSING 
AREAS OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS SW CARIBBEAN N OF 
EASTERN PANAMA. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA...THIS TRADE 
WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THROUGH WED...WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE 
EXPECTED OFF THE MOUNTAINOUS COAST OF COLOMBIA WED NIGHT INTO 
THU MORNING WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT OVER MUCH OF THE S CENTRAL 
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THU INTO FRI AS THE HIGH PRES 
N OF THE AREA SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING 
THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. 

...HISPANIOLA...

ASIDE FROM SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE...A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN 
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL KEEP RAINFALL LIMITED OVER 
HISPANIOLA...WITH ONLY A FEW CLOUDS CLINGING TO THE HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS.

...ATLANTIC... A VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NEAR 
BERMUDA CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD 
FRONT FROM 32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA. AREAS OF MULTILEVEL CLOUDS 
ALONG WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 
25N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NE AND 
WEAKENING...ALLOWING THE FRONT TO GRADUALLY STALL THROUGH LATE 
IN THE WEEK ACROSS SOUTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE BY 
THE WEEKEND.

FARTHER EAST...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N28W TO A 
CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR 21N43W TO TRINIDAD. A FEW SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CLOSED UPPER 
LOW...BUT THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND THE LOW 
SEEMS TO BE FILLING. FAIRLY DRY SUBSIDENT AIR IS NOTED IN THE 
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH...SUPPRESSING ANY 
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. 

OVER THE EASTERN ATLC...STRONG RIDGING IS BUILDING ACROSS THE 
AZORES...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ALONG THE ITCZ. 
MULTILEVEL CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 
20N BETWEEN 35W AND THE UPPER LOW NEAR 21N43W. OTHERWISE LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOTED N OF THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CHRISTENSEN