000 AXNT20 KNHC 181248 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ATLC GALE WARNING...1002 MB LOW PRES IS CENTERED OFF CAPE CANAVERAL NEAR 29N80W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES THROUGH SW FLORIDA. WINDS TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING N OF 30N WEST OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH SEAS REACHING 8 TO 10 FT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER SENEGAL NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 07N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 03N23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS N FLORIDA IS PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A DEEPENING 1002 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT HAS SHIFTED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES THROUGH SW FLORIDA SOUTH OF NAPLES...ACROSS FLORIDA BAY TO KEY WEST THEN ON TOWARD HAVANA CUBA. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MULTI VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE NE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDINESS IS ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRES AND SPREADING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF AS WELL. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN GULF INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY STARTING OVER THE TEXAS COAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING FROM THE ISLE OF YOUTH IN CUBA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE CAY SAL AREAS N OF CENTRAL CUBA TO SWAN ISLAND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM EARLIER IN THE NIGHT INDICATED STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH FAST MOVING LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WED...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT TO DIMINISH. HISPANIOLA... A FEW CLOUDS COVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE IT REACHES HISPANIOLA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING SUPPORT TO A DEEPENING 1002 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT HAS SHIFTED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND IS NOW CENTERED OFF THE E COAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. THE LOW WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES THROUGH SW FLORIDA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND REACH FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA BY EARLY WED. REPORTS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BRIEF PULSES TO GALE FORCE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING N OF 30N BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LOW PRES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST WITHIN 240 NM OF THE W OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID WEEK AS IT SHIFTS EAST. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC..CROSSING 32N NEAR 43W...THEN ON TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS IS SUPPORTING A VERY WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE LOW PRES AREA CENTERED NEAR 24N49W...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED WITHIN 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N42W TO THE LOW PRES...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 11N50W TO 21N54W. A BROAD SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR 41N20W...MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES S OF 27N W OF 35W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN