000 AXNT20 KNHC 180601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0915 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N17W 5N17W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N13W TO 2N16W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N12W TO 2N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH SOUTH TEXAS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO SW FLORIDA. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS OVER LIFT NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS. MULTI VARIABLE CLOUDINESS COVERS MUCH OF THE NE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDINESS IS ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW PRES AND SPREADING ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF AS WELL. THE LOW PRES WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING...WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF WATERS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE WESTERN GULF INDICATE THAT STRONG WINDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY STARTING OVER THE TEXAS COAST. THE CLOUD COVER AND WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EASTWARD BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT. LOOKING AHEAD...ANOTHER FRONT WILL SLIDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A COLD FRONT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 03 UTC INDICATED STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS BEHIND THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT MOVED INTO WESTERN CUBA AND THE CARIBBEAN WATERS NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH...BUT THIS HAS STARTED TO DISSIPATE QUICKLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. ELSEWHERE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM AROUND 00 UTC INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE THE WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH FAST MOVING LOW TOPPED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHIFT EASTWARD AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE WED...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT TO DIMINISH. HISPANIOLA... A FEW CLOUDS COVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...BUT OTHERWISE SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A VIGOROUS UPPER DISTURBANCE IS MOVING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH STATES TO THE CAROLINAS...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AN THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AS FORCING ALOFT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLC..CROSSING 32N NEAR 43W...THEN ON TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 31N77W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS N OF LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 28N47W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 25N49W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 11N50W TO 21N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH N OF 22N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 70W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITIES OF THE ABOVE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES AND A 1031 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY TONIGHT AND RACE NE OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO THE CAY SAL BANK ON TUE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS BERMUDA ON TUE NIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN