000 AXNT20 KNHC 172349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 17/0000 UTC FOR THE SW GULF S OF 23N BETWEEN 92W-95W. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 10N17W 5N17W TO 3N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N13W TO 2N16W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 5N12W TO 2N18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 43-47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO TO ACROSS S TEXAS AND MEXICO. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE GULF EXTENDING AT 17/2100 UTC FROM A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 28N84W ALONG 24N86W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W OVER BELIZE TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN HOMOSASSA AND DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND E OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE E GULF E OF 87W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT N OF 25N W OF 90W. SKIES ARE CLEARING OVER THE FAR W GULF N OF 22N W OF 95W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E AND BE FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY TONIGHT THEN THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE GULF AND E OF AREA ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CLIPS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 66W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W OVER BELIZE TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA NEAR 16N90W GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 16N. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT STALLING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT W AND DISSIPATE ON WED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH WED. HISPANIOLA... SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS EVENING WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP DUE TO THE TRADE WINDS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ACROSS THE W ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO 31N77W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS N OF LINE FROM MELBOURNE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N42W ALONG 28N47W TO A 1016 MB LOW NEAR 25N49W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 11N50W TO 21N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT/TROUGH N OF 22N. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 70W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITIES OF THE ABOVE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH AND IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES AND A 1031 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST EARLY TONIGHT AND RACE NE OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT OFF THE FLORIDA COAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO THE CAY SAL BANK ON TUE. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS BERMUDA ON TUE NIGHT WHILE THE SOUTHERN SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW