000 AXNT20 KNHC 171050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON MAR 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 29N90W S-SW TO 20N94W THEN SW TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. NORTHERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM 21N TO 26N WEST OF 95W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 03W-09W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 02N BETWEEN 33W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A POSITIVELY-TILTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SW TO OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THEN TO A BASE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR 23N108W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1003 MB LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING S- SW TO THE GULF COAST NEAR 30N89W TO 20N94W THEN TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 19N96W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING W OF 90W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W TO 25N89W WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF N OF 25N BETWEEN 81W-90W. THE LOW ACROSS ALABAMA IS FORECAST REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS NORTHERN GEORGIA MONDAY WHILE CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN GULF. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND THEN RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY EARLY TUESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR EAST OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTH- CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS RESULTING IN VERY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH ONLY A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRING. ONE SUCH AREA IS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 15N BETWEEN 59W-67W. THE OTHER AREA IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 68W-77W. OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKIES AND FAVORABLE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY TRADES RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KT. THE AREAS OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. LOOKING AHEAD...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE MONDAY VIA THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY TUESDAY. ...HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BROKEN SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEST-NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COUPLED WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC S OF 30N THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FOCUSED ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH ALONG 33N/34N W OF 76W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION FALLS WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE WHERE MAXIMUM SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER FAIR SKIES W OF 60W AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 32N58W SW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N78W. OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 29N53W THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N42W SW INTO A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE LOW TO 23N58W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL LIFT DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 23N-31N BETWEEN 39W-55W... EMBEDDED WITHIN SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST AND TO THE EAST. FINALLY...THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N20W TO 18N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN