000 AXNT20 KNHC 170001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH MON AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 9 FT TO 16 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES SW TO 2N19W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 12W-17W...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 2N21W ALONG 0N38W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 30W-35W AS WELL AS FROM 3S-2N W OF 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM CHICAGO SW TO CENTRAL TEXAS TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERED THE NW GULF WATERS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2100 UTC THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N91W SW TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N97W AND THEN WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN- CENTRAL MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT. EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 25N E OF 92W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N87W TO 26N92W SW TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N96W. CONTINUOUS MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ARE FUELING A SWATH OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N W OF A LINE FROM 30N82W SW TO 24N91W. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM APALACHEE BAY SW TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BY TUE MORNING A PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THAT TIME FRAME. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY. AT THE SURFACE...LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS BROKEN SKIES AND POSSIBLE PASSING SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH HIGHER WINDS UP TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND ADJACENT WATERS. OVER THE NW GULF...SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT. BY TUE MORNING...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH SHOWERS AND TSTMS. HISPANIOLA... LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BROKEN SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MON MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL DRY AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN 40W-60W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT EXTENDS AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 30N43W TO A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 27N48W SW TO 24N55W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE TO 21N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 40W-57W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS THE E ATLC N OF 18N. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE MONDAY LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 50W-52W. A NEW COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SW N ATLC BY TUE MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR