000 AXNT20 KNHC 161804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IN ABOUT 12 HOURS... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...CURRENTLY...EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT 30N88W TO 25N93W TO 19N96W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 93W. EXPECT ALSO SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/ FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS, ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W...TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 1N26W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 30W...AND THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W AND 39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 8W AND 15W...FROM 1S TO 1N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 52W IN BRAZIL. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SWEEPING ACROSS TEXAS...AND NOW IT IS APPROACHING THE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE FRONT IS CONNECTED TO A LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN ARKANSAS. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE CENTRAL TEXAS GULF COAST...TO A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N99W IN MEXICO. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 24N99W TO THE MEXICO COAST THAT IS NEAR 20N97W. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR THE SURFACE FEATURES IS A TROUGH THAT STILL IS INLAND...EXTENDING FROM ARKANSAS INTO TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. A SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N85W IN SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...TO 29N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 28N92W...TO 25N95W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN GENERAL COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KEIR AND KSPR. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KMDJ AND KDLP. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE PLATFORMS THAT ARE BETWEEN KGBK AND 25T/KVAF. SOME AREAS OF EARLIER LOW VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN IMPROVING IN VISIBILITY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS/OBSERVATIONS. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE SPREADING ACROSS FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COLOMBIA COAST ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE...COMBINED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. SOME OF COMPARATIVELY MORE PROMINENT AREAS OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE...TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA...AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AT THIS MOMENT. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COLOMBIA COAST ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE...COMBINED WITH THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N60W TO 20N70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN GENERAL IN SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...COVERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...HISPANIOLA... AND PARTS OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA AND SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA. RAINSHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPNAIOLA FROM WEST TO EAST ABOUT 18 HOURS INTO THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL END UP ON TOP OF COSTA RICA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS-MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE 24 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 400 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE NEAR ELEUTHERA ISLAND AND CAT ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AT THE START OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 425 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA AT 24 HOURS...GIVING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER MOVES TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 500 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N45W...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W...TO A SECOND 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N57W...TO 24N60W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 24N60W TO 20N70W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 48W...AND FROM 25N TO 26N BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 26N BETWEEN 44W AND 58W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 26N. THE RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE BORDER OF EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 15N84W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 23N32W...TO 16N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N33W 21N40W 13N46W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT/DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N44W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N50W...TO 24N60W...THEN A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N60W TO 20N70W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 31N44W TO 25N50W TO 25N55W. THE 06 HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 31N77W TO 27N80W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT