000 AXNT20 KNHC 160556 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO STARTING SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM 9 FT TO 12 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 07N11W AND CONTINUES SW TO 02N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 01S48W NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE AMAZON RIVER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 25N AND 30W AND WEST OF 35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING WARM MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE NW GULF THIS MORNING...AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW GULF THROUGH TEXAS. OIL RIG PLATFORMS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO REPORT SEA FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 3/4 NM OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON...CLEARING THE MOISTURE AND PROVIDING WINDS TO GALE FORCE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THIS EVENING. ASIDE FROM THE GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WILL HUG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TAMPICO TO VERACRUZ THROUGH EARLY MON...25 TO 30 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 13 FT WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SW GULF INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH TUE...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THOUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FEW AREAS OF CLOUDS WITH SOME EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDED ACROSS HISPANIOLA EARLIER. BUOYS INDICATED GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...SOUTH OF FAIRLY WEAK HIGH PRES NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF MOISTURE APPROACHING THE REGION. ALOFT...A RIDGE DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10- 15 KT ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE N OF HISPANIOLA BY SUN MORNING WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. LOOKING AHEAD...SE TRADES WILL BECOME STRONG ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SUN WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING N ACROSS THE YUCATAN BASIN ON SUN NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ON MON EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE EASTERN GULF OF HONDURAS ON TUE. REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL DRIFT NW ON WED. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. HISPANIOLA... THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INTO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AS A STATIONARY FRONT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ITS VICINITY SUPPORTS BROKEN SKIES AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE N OF THE ISLAND BY SUN MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N ALONG 55W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N45W SW TO VERY WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRES NEAR 25N51W TO 22N61W...WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 25N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE SW N ATLC WATERS AS WELL AS THE E ATLC N OF 17N. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT AND START DISSIPATING SUN MORNING. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND AN ALTIMETER PASS FROM SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED AN AREA OF SWELL FROM 8 TO 12 FT COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC WATERS GENERALLY W OF THE FRONT TO 65W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN