000 AXNT20 KNHC 151754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT MAR 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 36 HOURS... ..GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING...THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 36 HOURS. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST ALONG 30N89W 22N94W 19N96W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM 29N95W TO 25N92W AND TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS, ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER AREAS OF SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA NEAR 9N13W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 24W...TO 2S32W AND 2S36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN EASTWARD FROM 4S TO 2N...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N FROM 6W EASTWARD. SCATTERED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE EQUATOR ALONG 17W...1N19W 3N21W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE COAST OF LOUISIANA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W...TO 32N70W TO 30N78W... ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGVX. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT...KVBS...KSPR...KMDJ...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INCLUDING KDLP...K9F2...AND BOOTHVILLE. A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG IS BEING REPORTED AT KBBF ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. RAIN STARTS FROM BAY CITY AND ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. SOME LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND MOSTLY MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER COASTAL LOUISIANA/ EXTREME SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND PATCHY RAIN COVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM MARIANNA TO THE PANAMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ALSO IN FLORIDA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 15/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.30 IN TRINIDAD AND 0.15 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AT THIS MOMENT. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC... AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE MARACAIBO...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL NICARAGUA...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 22N64W TO 20N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. EARLIER MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT WERE WITHIN 130 NM OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING WITH TIME...COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA...AND IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PORT-AU- PRINCE IN HAITI. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY- WESTERLY-TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA... WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THE GFS-MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CUBA-TO-NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N54W... AND TO 22N64W. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY FROM 22N64W TO 20N71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N50W 24N55W 23N58W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST/IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N65W...TO 32N70W TO 30N78W... ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N27W TO 28N30W 20N40W AND 10N47W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 27N33W 21N40W 13N46W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W AND TO THE EAST OF THE 32N48W 26N54W 22N64W 20N71W FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N49W TO 28N53W TO 23N61W THEN STATIONARY TO 21N65W TO 20N73W. EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET WITHIN 180 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS ELSEWHERE TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N66W TO 23N75W. SEA HEIGHTS S 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL ...HIGHEST TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 53W AND 62W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT