000 AXNT20 KNHC 151050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT MAR 15 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE NW TO N WINDS FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 95W BEGINNING AT 17/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W THEN ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 33W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 11W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OCCURRING OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STREAMING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NW MEXICO...TEXAS...AND REMAINING GENERALLY N OF 30N OVER THE SE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 29N TO 95W. E-SE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH ONLY LOW-LEVEL STRATUS FOUND ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY N OF 23N W OF 90W. LOOKING AHEAD...THE E-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT STEMMING FROM A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BLAST OF N- NW WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE FRONT W OF 90W THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THEREAFTER...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AS A HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... OVERALL DRY AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS PROVIDING FOR RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM 23N62W SW TO 19N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-74W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER FAIR SKIES WITH TRADES RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 KT. AS THE USUAL... INCREASED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND AND IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW TO 23N62W TO 19N73W. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY WHILE CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND PROVIDE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 40N54W TO 30N56W TO 27N63W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N49W TO 23N62W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N68W THAT IS PROVIDING OVERALL TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST... THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1038 MB HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 48N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN