000 AXNT20 KNHC 150000 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES SW TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES THROUGH 0S30W TO 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 10W-15W AND FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 17W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC TO THE NW BASIN WHILE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH EXTENDS INTO THE GULF AND PROVIDES SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW OF 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 27N W OF 90W. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW UP TO 20 KT IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE SW N ATLC TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 19N75W TO 19N82W TO NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 73W-78W AND W OF 85W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGES OVER HISPANIOLA AND SUPPORTS BROKEN SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ENTERING THE SE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT SOUTHWESTERLY-WESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING OVERALL STABILITY ACROSS THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO VANISH BY SAT MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THE WINDS UP TO 20 KT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM SAT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS SUPPORTING BROKEN SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE OVER THE ISLAND TONIGHT AND STALL THROUGH SAT MORNING WHEN IS EXPECTED TO VANISH. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACTIVITY WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 33N74W COVERS THE W ATLC AND PROVIDES NELY FLOW OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. FURTHER EAST...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH BETWEEN 50W-68W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N55W SW TO 22N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 19N75W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA INDICATE THERE IS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N52W TO 26N54W TO 22N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND TROUGH ARE N OF 22N BETWEEN 50W- 59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 35N38W COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC N OF 17N. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY SAT MORNING AND START DISSIPATING BY SUN MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR