000 AXNT20 KNHC 140558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 14 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES TO 1N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N18W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THIS IS GIVING MOST OF THE GULF FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE STATIONARY FRONT INLAND OVER MEXICO ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS IS BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TAMPICO. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE ON SUN REACHING FROM THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND SUNSET ON SUN THEN REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AROUND SUNRISE ON MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE W ATLC. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD INTO THE W ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN AT 14/0300 UTC ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY AND CONTINUES ALONG 20N83W TO THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR BELIZE CITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE FRONT. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER E CUBA AND THE HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA BETWEEN 70W-77W. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO E HONDURAS ON FRI THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH MON. HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE IS INCREASING OVER HISPANIOLA AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO INLAND OVER HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-74W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MON. THE FRONT OVER CUBA WILL MOVE TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE LATER TODAY DRIFTING TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL PROVIDE LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND INTO THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W ATLC AT 14/0300 UTC NEAR 32N62W AND EXTENDS ALONG 25N70W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A PAIR OF WEAK LOW LEVEL SWIRLS ARE PRODUCING SURFACE TROUGHS WITH ONE EXTENDING FROM 29N50W TO 26N48W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N57W ALONG 24N55W TO 22N56W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N28W AND EXTENDS TO 26N36W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE AREA E OF 65W WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITIES OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGHS AND ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 35N39W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON FRI DRIFTING TO N OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN STALLING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING SAT AND SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS ON FRI AND PASS TO THE N OF BERMUDA ON SAT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE SUN ALLOWING A SECOND WEAKER COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATE SUN NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW