000 AXNT20 KNHC 131036 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT HAS RECENTLY MOVED INTO THE W ATLC AND REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE WARNING IS FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 30N W OF THE FRONT THROUGH 13/1200 UTC. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N13W TO 1N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 23W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 15W-25W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC GIVING THE GULF W TO W-SW FLOW ALOFT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS TO THE N GULF COAST SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF AT 13/0900 UTC ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N89W 21N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. THUS NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITH THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W THEN OVER W CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 23N83W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE E OUT OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY PASS SE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE FRI NIGHT. A SECOND WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF LATE SAT NIGHT REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS AT 13/0900 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N83W INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N86W THEN ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE TO INLAND OVER GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 62W-69W AND OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON FRI. FRESH N WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE FRONT ON TONIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SUN. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER S HAITI FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 72W-74W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF HISPANIOLA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUN. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN REACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/HAITI EARLY FRI. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE FRI WHILE THE FRONT OVER THE ATLC WILL CONTINUE E AND DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO. THIS WILL PROVIDE LINGERING MOISTURE TO GENERATE AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N74W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BETWEEN STUART AND FORT MYERS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E EXTENDING FROM 32N69W ALONG 27N75W INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 29N AND FROM 77W-80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N31W AND EXTENDS TO 27N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE SW EXTENDING FROM 27N45W ALONG 24N52W TO 20N59W MOVING NW. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE IS SPLIT BY THE ABOVE FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH COVERING THE AREA E OF 65W AND ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N42W AND A 1026 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE N OF PUERTO RICO ON FRI. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN W OF THE FRONT AND SHIFT E OFF THE CAROLINAS ON FRI PASSING NEAR BERMUDA ON SAT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NE FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LATE SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW