000 AXNT20 KNHC 121037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF NEAR SUNRISE AND EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW GULF THROUGH THU MORNING. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAME GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF INTO THE W ATLC. GALE WARNING WILL BE FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N14W TO 2N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 3N10W TO 1N18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF FROM E TENNESSEE INTO THE GULF OVER THE BIG BEND AREA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM SW GEORGIA ALONG 29N85W TO 25N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. PATCHES OF DENSE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE W GULF FROM MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO TUXPAN MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TODAY AND EXIT THE GULF ON TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI NIGHT REACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NE MEXICO ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 62W-77W INCLUDING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER TODAY REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THU THEN DISSIPATING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT ON THU NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. HISPANIOLA... PATCH OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI AND IN THE GULF OF GONAVE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT REACHING HISPANIOLA ON FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N45W TO 21N57W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS TONIGHT THEN EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE THU BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKEN FROM 32N59W TO HISPANIOLA ON FRI. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW