000 AXNT20 KNHC 120551 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING NW OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF AND EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE W GULF THROUGH EARLY THU. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT EARLY THU AS THE SAME COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. GALE WARNING WILL BE FOR THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THU AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N13W TO 1N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 19W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 4N6W TO 1N19W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR N GULF FROM NW MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER TO 28N88W SUPPORTING A 1006 MB LOW OVER S MISSISSIPPI AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 29N88W 25N90W TO 21N95W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 26N86W TO INLAND OVER FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. THIS IS LEAVING THE GULF W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF AROUND SUNRISE REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED AND EXIT THE GULF ON WED NIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN SURFACE FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF THU NIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF ON FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF ON FRI NIGHT REACHING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NE MEXICO ON SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 66W-76W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE WED REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU THEN DISSIPATING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON THU NIGHT AND FRI. FRESH N WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT ON THU NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH MODERATE TRADE WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SAT. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC/CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT REACHING HISPANIOLA ON FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THU THROUGH SAT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 65W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC AND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N37W AND EXTENDS ALONG 24N49W TO 21N58W WHERE IT DISSIPATES OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE CONUS WED NIGHT THEN EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA LATE THU BEFORE STALLING AND WEAKEN FROM 32N59W TO HISPANIOLA ON FRI. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW