000 AXNT20 KNHC 111752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY WEDNESDAY USHERING IN GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS BY 12/1800 UTC NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY...GALE FORCE W TO NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION N OF 29N WEST OF THE FRONT BEGINNING AT 13/0600 UTC. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 03N16W TO 01N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 01N19W TO THE EQUATOR AT 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 05N BETWEEN 12W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROGRESSING EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST WITH A MAJORITY OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF 29N95W. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SUPPORTS A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N94W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS E-NE ALONG THE GULF COAST TO NEAR MOBILE BAY...AND SOUTH FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N95W THEN TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TUXPAN. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 87W-95W...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A N-NE TRACK AND GRADUALLY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BY LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG 30N/31N TO THE SE CONUS BY FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N60W SW TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W WHERE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS NOTED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 67W-74W. THE OVERALL LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IS DUE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 08N66W NW TO 22N80W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERALLY PROVIDING STABILITY AND DRY AIR OVER THE BASIN. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH A 1017 MB HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE STRONGEST TRADES ARE NOTED CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS THE STRONGEST. EARLIER MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATED THESE WINDS GENERALLY S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W-77W. THE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E-NE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL DISSIPATE AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THIS SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO GENERATE LIGHT E-NE WINDS. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING E-SE FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK 1017 MB HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N74W. FARTHER EAST...BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH MUCH OF THE MID-LEVEL ENERGY N OF 25N BETWEEN 42W-60W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W EXTENDING SW TO 24N50W TO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. A SECONDARY BOUNDARY...ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO 28N60W. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN