000 AXNT20 KNHC 111044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N15W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 1N25W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 31W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 8W-20W AND FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WATERS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST TO NE MEXICO. AT 11/0900 UTC A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1010 MB LOW IS IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N95W WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N96W AND E FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N92W OVER SW LOUISIANA TO 29N88W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-29N W OF 91W TO THE FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGHS HAVE DISSIPATED. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 90W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SHIFTING E ACROSS FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT NE AND DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE GULF EXITING THE GULF LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING PATCHES OF ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 62W-83W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W CARIBBEAN AND EXTEND ACROSS YUCATAN CHANNEL THU THEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE LATE SAT. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY THU AND APPROACH HISPANIOLA FRI INCREASING SHOWERS FROM W TO E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC AND A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W ALONG 28N59W TO 28N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A REMNANT COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N40W TO 30N43W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 24N51W TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180/210 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE E TODAY THROUGH THU WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS W ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO NW CUBA THU AND FROM NEAR 32N60W TO E CUBA FRI BEFORE STALLING THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW