000 AXNT20 KNHC 110530 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES TO 3N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N21W 00N26W TO 2N35W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-5N E OF 16W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 16W- 28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 28N99W. AT THE SURFACE IS A COMPLEX SYSTEM WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING AT 11/0300 UTC FROM 29N89W ALONG 27N94W THEN S ALONG 23N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 22N-28N W OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AND INLAND OVER NE MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO 23N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM SE AND 30 NM NW OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND WEAKER SURFACE TROUGH IS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 22N95W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 87W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E GULF WITH A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE NE OUT OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N/CENTRAL GULF. A STRONGER AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF WED MORNING AND MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-75W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA AND FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 74W-78W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRI. ISOLATED TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU WHEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE ISLAND WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC EARLY THU AND CROSS HISPANIOLA FRI INCREASING SHOWERS FROM W TO E. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE W ATLC AND A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 26N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W ALONG 29N62W TO 28N69W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N43W ALONG 24N51W TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A SECOND WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. CENTRAL ATLC STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE ON TUE. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NE WED THROUGH THU AS STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERS W ATLC REACHING FROM 32N60W TO E CUBA EARLY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW