000 AXNT20 KNHC 102355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 02N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N18W TO THE EQUATOR AT 26W TO 01N31W TO THE EQUATOR AT 34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 300 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE PASSING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN RIO GRANDE VALLEY. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW IS POOLING MOISTURE IN THE WESTERN GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM 23N- 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 94W AS WELL AS IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH PARALLELS THE WESTERN GULF COAST APPROXIMATELY 120 NM OFFSHORE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS LOW CLOUDS ARE PLENTIFUL W OF THIS TROUGH PRIMARILY S OF 27N. ASCAT ALSO SHOWS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF WITH A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THIS LOW NORTHEASTWARD. OVERNIGHT...THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD CLASH WITH THE DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIKELY FORM. THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUE AS THE UPPER LOW IS SWEPT EASTWARD BY AN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF WED. WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR GALE FORCE BY WED EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS PARKED JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY CAN BE FOUND. ELSEWHERE...ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A MORE ORGANIZED AREA S-SW OF HISPANIOLA FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 72W-78W. THE LACK OF SHOWERS IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT IS GENERALLY PROVIDING STABILITY AND DRY AIR OVER THE BASIN. WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE SITTING JUST N OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. THE STRONGEST TRADES CAN BE FOUND CLOSE TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STRONGEST. THIS HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WED. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL DISSIPATE AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE...SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN HAVE ALLOWED A SEABREEZE TO PUSH INLAND FROM THE COAST OVER HISPANIOLA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS ACCUMULATED WHERE THE SEABREEZE HAS MET THE WINDWARD SLOPES. PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER HAITI THAN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHICH IS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MOISTURE POOLED NEAR THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FOUND NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS FORCED NORTHEASTWARD BY A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD DECREASE THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLC. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE FROM 32N42W TO JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON THE SAN JUAN RADAR AND EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD PRIMARILY WITHIN 90 NM OF THE BOUNDARY. IN THE AREA N OF 15N...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHEST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SECONDARY SPOKE IN THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT DIPS SOUTH OF BERMUDA TO 31N66W THEN BECOMES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE BORDER OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS BOUNDARY HAS MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF IT. IT IS THE DIVIDING LINE BETWEEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE ONE INCH AND VALUES BELOW ONE INCH NORTH OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE FOUND N OF THE FRONT. THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE SQUEEZED EASTWARD AS A NEW BROAD TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND PROMOTES RIDGING AHEAD OF IT OVER THE WESTERN ATLC. THE TWO SURFACE BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MERGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC BY WED AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...A WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 31N11W. IT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED AROUND A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 30N16W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF MOROCCO AND BECOMES A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THROUGH WESTERN SAHARA TO 21N20W THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N34W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT INCLUDING OVER CENTRAL MOROCCO. THE LOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO MOROCCO AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A LARGER LOW OVER THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ SCHAUER