000 AXNT20 KNHC 101743 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO 01N24W TO 01N31W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 34W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 04N BETWEEN 18W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 26N106W THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. PRECEDING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY ALOFT...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 28N94 THAT IS SUPPORTING MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF...IN ADDITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS N OF 24N W OF 93W. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS OVER THE WESTERN GULF...A WEAK 1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 20N94W WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING N-NE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N94W TO 28N90W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF S OF 27N W OF 90W. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A BROAD 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N79W...EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NW TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN S-SW FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO USHER IN ANOTHER AROUND OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT IN ITS WAKE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N76W AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR THE OVERALL STABILITY AND DRY AIR NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BASIN. ONLY A FEW AREAS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING...MOST NOTABLY S OF 16N BETWEEN 62W- 70W...AND S-SW OF HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-76W. OTHERWISE...TRADES REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ...HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE E- NE OF HISPANIOLA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20N65W TO 18N69W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 72W-76W. OVERALL THOUGH...MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE ISLAND AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC...MAINLY NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH MID-LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHED ALONG A LINE FROM 33N49W TO 30N63W TO 33N79W. THE MID- LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED INTO THE REGION. ONE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 31N70W AND BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 35N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING N OF 28N BETWEEN 46W AND THE 66W. THE EASTERN MOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N43W SW TO 27N50W TO 20N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N79W. FINALLY...A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N14W AND SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOCUSED AROUND A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND MADEIRA ISLANDS NEAR 31N17W. THE OCCLUDED FRONT WRAPS AROUND THE LOW FROM 30N21W TO 34N20W AND BECOMES A COLD FRONT TO 33N12W TO 28N11W TO 22N20W...THEN CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 22N34W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN