000 AXNT20 KNHC 092332 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N47W TO 25N57W TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 20N70W. N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 46W...SW WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH SEAS 9 TO 14 FT ARE OCCURRING. N OF 29N W OF FRONT TO 57W...W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT AND SEAS 12 TO 15 FT EXIST. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 27N. THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION BECOMES STATIONARY AND SLOWLY DISSIPATES. CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR NORTH OF 23N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF 23N IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 1N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 1N32W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 180 NM OF THE TROUGH/ITCZ EAST OF 28W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS SOUTH OF WEST AFRICA EAST OF 0W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A COMPLEX SYSTEM OF FRONTS AND A TROUGH EXISTS WITHIN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COOL AIR MASS HAS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MEXICAN EAST COAST TODAY AND THE COLD FRONT HAS REACHED THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N95W. WINDS...BEING ENHANCED BY THE HIGH MEXICAN TOPOGRAPHY...ARE NORTHERLY 20-30 KT WEST OF THE FRONT. NORTH OF 25N...THE FRONT HAS BECOME STATIONARY AND EXTENDS CURRENTLY FROM 25N95W TO THE TEXAS-LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30N94W. A WARM FRONT ALSO BEGINS AT THE 25N95W INTERSECTION AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N88W. A WEAK LOW MAY BE DEVELOPING NEAR THIS INTERSECTION POINT. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...15-25 KT NORTHEAST WINDS EXIST...WHILE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WINDS ARE EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 15-25 KT. FINALLY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS SEEN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL LIKELY MERGE WITH THE COLD FRONT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN THE NW HALF OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE FRONTS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ARE SUPPORTED BY A VIGOROUS DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY...SHUTTING OFF THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAK LOW ALONG WITH THE WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH SLOWLY NORTHWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THERE IS STRONG POSSIBILITY OF CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REACHING THE MEXICAN...TEXAS... AND LOUISIANA COASTS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES EXIST TODAY OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WAS SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OVER HIGH TERRAIN OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...GUATEMALA... AND HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER JAMAICA...EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHICH REACHES HISPANIOLA. SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN ARE WEAKER THAN TYPICAL...10-20 KT EASTERLIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 15-25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN IS WEAK. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS OR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...HISPANIOLA... WHILE NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXISTS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER HISPANIOLA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC WHICH REACHES HISPANIOLA. WINDS ALONG THE NORTH- FACING COASTS OF HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND HAS TYPICAL TRADEWIND EASTERLIES INTERACTING WITH THE DIURNAL SEA-LAND BREEZES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN WINDS OR RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT DOMINATES THE CONDITIONS AS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. FARTHER TO THE EAST...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N14W NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS SOUTHWESTWARD TO 25N37W. FROM THERE...THE FRONT IS STATIONARY AND EXTENDS TO 32N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS 1004 MB LOW AT 36N19W NORTH OF OUR AREA...WHICH IS PRODUCING STORM FORCE WINDS JUST EAST OF THE AZORES. NORTHERLIES UP TO 25 KT ARE BEHIND THE FRONT IN OUR AREA. THE LOW IS PROJECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND BE CENTERED NEAR 28N16W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION AND WINDS ARE 20 KT OR LESS...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LANDSEA