000 AXNT20 KNHC 091759 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN MAR 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 31N49W TO 23N65W TO 20N70W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 KNOTS TO 35 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 14 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 46W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO A LINE FROM 31N44W TO 26N51W. EXPECT WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 15 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 57W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 15 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 65W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 65W AND 75W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO FRANCE GRAND LARGE METAREA II HIGH SEAS FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE GALE-FORCE WINDS THAT ARE PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY...MADEIRA AND IRVING...ROUGHLY FROM 30N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 13W AND 35W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 4N15W 1N18W AND 1N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N19W TO 1N27W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 14W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 26W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN 43W AND 51W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN BRAZIL AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 4S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING THROUGH LOUISIANA...THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AND INTERIOR MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 104W. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE FEATURE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 14N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W...INLAND IN MEXICO NEAR 24N99W AND 25N101W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD FROM 25N101W TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND. THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N89W 22N95W...AND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 93W AND 95W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE 30N85W 26N86W 24N90W 21N94W 19N96W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N86W IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA... TO 21N76W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. ICAO STATIONS KMZG AND KBBF ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT KGBK. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KHQI...KCRH...AND KATP. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE TO 2 MILES AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KVAF AND KGUL. FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND PATCHES OF POSSIBLE FOG COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST. RAIN IS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS COVER PARTS OF COASTAL LOUISIANA. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME IN COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. SCATTERED MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN COASTAL ALABAMA...AND IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 30N93W TO 26N96W TO 20N96W. EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 14N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW...MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF 72W...TO THE NORTH OF 14N TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA ALONG THE COASTS FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. THE MONSOON TROUGH DOES NOT EXIST IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AT THIS MOMENT. ANY RAINSHOWERS THAT MAY BE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ARE RELATED TO TRADE WIND FLOW AND CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. ...HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA TO 14N76W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA... BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 24N60W 21N68W...TO 19N70W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY- WESTERLY-TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA... WITH A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA THE GFS-MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO- NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A CUBA-TO-NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 24N60W 21N68W...TO 19N70W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 41W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 29N49W 25N57W 22N65W...AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N16W TO 22N20W 25N30W AND 26N39W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N39W TO 29N41W AND 31N42W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N42W BEYOND 32N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THE FRONT IS MARKED BY BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS THAT ARE WITHIN 45 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W 26N20W 25N30W 25N40W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.07 IN BERMUDA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR BERMUDA...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC... WAS 0.85. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N42W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO THE TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO THE EAST OF THE 24N60W- TO-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COLD FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT