000 AXNT20 KNHC 090602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN MAR 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... GALE WARNING AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N57W TO 25N64W TO 20N73W. N OF 27.5N WITHIN 210 NM SE OF FRONT SW WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. N OF 30N W OF FRONT TO 65W W WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N16W TO 1N20W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1N20W TO 1N34W TO 1N41W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 0S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6S-0N BETWEEN 1W-9W AND FROM 5S-6N BETWEEN 18W-26W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS FROM 0N-5N BETWEEN 2W- 10W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALOFT WHICH IS ADVECTING MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC WATERS INTO THE BASIN. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 30N85W DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AND PROVIDES MAINLY EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT. SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN INTO THE WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SUPPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS N OF 21N W OF 89W. CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN ARKANSAS SW ALONG THE COASTLINE OF TEXAS AND ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THIS FRONT OVER THE FAR WESTERN BASIN WHERE A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NW GULF BY TUE MORNING. SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED MAINLY FOR THE NW GULF THROUGH THIS PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... NO NOTABLE FEATURES OCCURRING OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS AN EARLIER FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN BASIN HAS DISSIPATED. THE REMAINDER PORTION OF THE FRONT IS OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE. REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A MOIST AIRMASS IS NOTED IN SSMI TPW IMAGERY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL BE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THIS REGION TO INCLUDE PUERTO RICO. ALOFT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN AND PROVIDES SOUTHWESTERLY WIND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WHICH IS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT DAY RESIDUAL SHOWERS TO REMAIN FROM HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO. HISPANIOLA... A COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC WITH TAIL EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG WITH REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PORTION OF THE FRONT THAT ALREADY DISSIPATED IS ENHANCING LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND THE PASSAGE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N58W TO 24N66W TO 20N73W BEING SUPPORTED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH W OF 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT NEAR OUR NORTH BORDER. SEE ABOVE. ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AS COLD FRONT ALONG 30N23W TO 25N34W TO 27N41W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 30N44W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 25N43W COVERS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN N OF 10N. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR