000 AXNT20 KNHC 080601 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING OVER THE SW N ATLANTIC ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0600 UTC IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO 26N72W. THE EXPECTED AREA OF GALE WINDS WILL BE N OF 26N WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SUN NIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT01 KNHC OR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N20W TO 1N29W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 0N30W AND CONTINUES TO 0S40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 2S-6N BETWEEN 10W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... NEARLY WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING ADVECTION OF MODERATE MOISTURE FROM THE E PAC N OF 26N AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N86W DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AND PROVIDES NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT E OF 90W AND EASTERLY- SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT ELSEWHERE. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN WHILE BANKING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SUPPORTS CLOUDINESS W OF 95W. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GULF WATERS DURING SAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE W GULF EARLY SUN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS WAKE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC WITH A BASE NEAR NORTHERN CUBA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL CUBA TO 21N78W TO 19N83W TO 15N87W. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ACROSS MOSTLY THE ENTIRE BASIN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CUBA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTERING THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH ARE ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 14N E OF 65W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER CENTRAL COASTAL HONDURAS WHERE THE FRONT TAIL ENDS. TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN E OF 80W WITH WINDS UP TO 20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NW BASIN...NELY WINDS UP TO 10 KT DOMINATE. OTHERWISE... THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE EARLY SAT BUT REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH SUN MORNING. HISPANIOLA... DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT CONTINUES TO HINDER DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE ISLAND. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA IS ENHANCING SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING...HOWEVER LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS THROUGH SUN MORNING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N WESTERN ATLC WITH A BASE NEAR NORTHERN CUBA SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N69W TO 24N74W TO NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGHING ALOFT ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N75W TO FREEPORT TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N BETWEEN 65W-72W. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR DETAILS. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 25N46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR